The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today. DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.
And what a difference a month makes. Last month, DFW led the U.S. for home price increases, with June prices up 29.3% over the previous year. In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021. Homes in DFW spend an average of 23 days on the market before selling.
Higher interest rates and inflation, as well as record home prices, triggered a sharp drop in demand for housing, said Todd Luong, a realtor with Re/Max DFW Associates: "Here at our Re/Max office in Dallas-Fort Worth, our listings are currently getting on average 2.7 showings per week," Luong said. "Last year, at this same time, our listings were earning on average 5.9 showings per week. That is a huge drop in buyer demand compared to the previous year. Record home prices and higher mortgage rates have forced many potential buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers."
While the latest trends may disappoint some sellers, buyers now have more choices and better opportunities for good deals, Luong said. Luong said that the DFW housing market has been challenged with low inventory for years and reached an all-time low earlier this year, with only a two-week supply. Now, however, inventory is increasing. "Although buyers have more choices now, it is still not a balanced market as we only have about a two-month housing supply," Luong said. "In a normal market, you have about a five to six-month supply of housing."
A new report from Zillow also found falling home values, although the numbers didn't match Re/Max's precisely because of different study methods and different geographic definitions of DFW as a metro area, among other reasons. According to Zillow's findings, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area's typical home value is $396,904, down 1.1% since June, the first month of decline. Values are up 55.4% since July 2019.
Zillow also reported that the mortgage payment on a typical home in DFW is $2,633 a month, including taxes and insurance. That's up 77.4% compared to July 2019.
According to Zillow, inventory in DFW has risen 10.2% since June, and the share of listings with a price cut in July was 22%, compared to 15.6% in June. Nationwide, after two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell for the first time since 2012 as competition for houses eased, according to Zillow's July market report.
The slowdown is being driven by decreased competition among buyers. Zillow's analysis says that affordability pressures have pushed many to the sidelines, and buyers are waiting in the wings to resume their search if and when prices relax a bit. Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, called the flattening of home values "a badly needed rebalancing. This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates," Olsen said. "As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.'"
Luong said he sees positive signs in the market. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% after peaking in June. More than 290,000 new jobs were added in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, so North Texas has one of the strongest labor markets in the country. "Reasonably priced homes that are in good condition and move-in ready are still selling very fast," he said. "However, the bidding wars have subsided considerably across the board."
Finding the perfect home is a challenging endeavor under normal circumstances, but searching for a home in a different city or state might seem impossible. Coordinating the purchase of a lifetime from several hundred miles away can seem like a daunting task.
While long-distance house hunting can pose challenges, our real estate agents want you to know that it's not as difficult as it seems. In today's world, with easily accessible online listings and the ability to conduct virtual tours, it's actually never been easier. Here are some tips on how to make your long-distance home search a success:
Buying a home in a new city comes with its challenges, but it's actually never been easier than it is today. Contact us today to check out some great home listings in the Dallas area.
Today's real estate market remains hot, hot, hot, with sellers enjoying high prices, while buyers are facing a highly competitive market that has made it difficult for some to land the home they're longing for. This is especially true for those selling homes in Dallas/Fort Worth or shopping for Dallas homes for sale and Fort Worth homes for sale.
It's easy to get distracted during the buying or selling process by certain widespread real estate myths. Our real estate agents help many families in the area find their dream home and advise them to not fall for misconceptions they might hear from well-meaning friends and family members.
Read on about some common real estate myths you should not fall for.
Need more help navigating today's real estate market? Contact us today.
Dallas area home prices soared by more than 21% in the latest nationwide comparison. The surge in local home costs set a year-over-year record gain for the Dallas area in the closely watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Nationwide prices rose by 18.6% in June compared with a year earlier. The nationwide jump was the largest in the Case-Shiller report in more than 30 years, according to S&P's Craig J. Lazzara.
"June 2021 is the third consecutive month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record," Lazzara said in the report. "The last several months have been extraordinary, not only in the level of price gains but in the consistency of gains across the country. Dallas-area home prices have more than doubled in the last decade in the Case-Shiller report.
Texas home sales by y real estate agents declined 17% in July from a year earlier due to the lack of properties for sale and some buyers pulling out of the market because of home prices. But demand for homes in the Dallas area remains very high.
"Demand for housing continues to far outweigh the supply of homes for sale," Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said in a statement. "But despite the enduring market competition, more recent data indicate that the scalding hot housing market may have cooled slightly in recent weeks.
Dallas Morning News, August 31, 2021
Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. fears home sales might slow next year in the ramp up to presidential and congressional elections. "We typically have much slower selling seasons right before an election," she said. "After that happens, the flood gates open and people come out. It's not a matter of who wins." Worries about a recession may also impact the home market. "We spent the better part of the last decade still looking over our shoulder," said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com. "The last recession was so bad that we are still carrying some of the scars from that." However, Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University states that Texas economy is still expanding. "And we are extremely unlikely to be in a recession by the end of this calendar year," he said. "We are probably pretty safe through the first six months of next year."
If you're looking into purchasing a home in Dallas, then one of the big questions you'll have to ask yourself is whether or not to buy in a neighborhood with a homeowners association. Our real estate agents are familiar with HOAs and have put together this handy guide on choosing a Dallas neighborhood with one—and the pros and cons that go along with it.
By design, pretty much any HOA worth its mettle focuses on making life in a neighborhood easier, simpler, and more uniform for its homeowners. In most situations, the pros of joining an HOA or buying in an HOA-run neighborhood usually far outweigh the cons. Here's why you want to join an HOA:
While HOAs have many positives, there can be some negatives. Some things you should be aware of before committing to a neighborhood with an HOA:
The Frisco school district's at-large system for electing trustees discriminates against the rapidly growing Asian population in the area, according to a federal lawsuit filed Tuesday. The voting-rights lawsuit is the third in a year against a North Texas school district, all brought by the Brewer Storefront, the pro bono affiliate of the firm Brewer, Attorneys and Counselors, which has also filed voting-rights suits against several other districts and cities. Frisco demographics have changed rapidly over the past 15 years, as it has been one of the fastest-growing communities in the state. More than 70% of the district's 13,284 students were white in the 2003-04 school year, according to state data. Now FISD has about 60,000 students, of which about 42% are white, 29% Asian and 13.5% Hispanic. (Some 11% are African-American.)
"So less than half of the children in public schools are white, but they're not able to elect any candidates of color?" said William Brewer, a partner at the storefront. "The voting is clearly polarized in Frisco."
Frisco is one of the few Texas school districts where students of Asian heritage make up a majority on some campuses. The others are Carrollton-Farmers Branch, Coppell, Plano, Fort Bend, Round Rock and Alief. The Asian population in Frisco has increased in recent years as an active word-of-mouth pipeline drew more and more families as workers from India came to work for the booming software and technology companies in the area. Then in 2008, a well-known Hindu priest blessed the land in the eastern part of the school district. Many Indian families bought homes in the area, and a Hindu temple was built.
The Brewer Storefront filed a lawsuit against the Lewisville school district in February alleging that all seven trustees there come from affluent, white neighborhoods, so students of color receive a "second-rate" education. That suit is pending. The Richardson district recently settled the voting-rights lawsuit filed against it last year. That district is moving toward five single-member districts; two board members will continue to be elected at large. In 2016, Brewer sued Coppell ISD over concerns that the Asian-American community there was being disenfranchised, but that suit was dismissed.
Currently city and school districts can raise taxes 8% a year without voter approval.
This new bill, passed by the Texas Senate, and now heads to the House, would limit the increase to 2.5% per year.
AUSTIN — Legislation that would slow property tax increases for home and business owners cleared the Texas Senate on Monday, after the sole Republican opponent of the bill stepped aside to allow the vote.
The vote was a victory for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a longtime proponent of property tax relief and champion of the Senate bill. He was again pitted against his political foil, Amarillo Sen. Kel Seliger, the only Republican who openly opposes the bill. Seliger held it up for weeks before changing his mind Monday morning and voting to allow the debate to proceed.
"Today is a historic day," Patrick said after the vote. "We heard a lot of comments from the floor ... from those in opposition who were concerned about cities and counties and their budgets. We're concerned about the people's budget — that's what we're concerned about."
Senate Bill 2 passed 18-12 with Seliger joining the Democrats in opposition. One senator, Brownsville Democrat Eddie Lucio, was present but did not vote. The bill will be debated in the Texas House, which has written its own version of the priority legislation, a week from Wednesday.
Authored by Houston Republican Sen. Paul Bettencourt, a former tax assessor-collector, SB2 would slow property tax growth by limiting how much revenue local governments and school districts can collect each year. It would not make tax bills smaller.
SB2, which was changed on the Senate floor Monday, caps property tax revenue growth for counties, cities and special taxing districts at 3.5% a year, up from 2.5% in the original version. School districts would stay capped at 2.5% a year; however, they are getting a boost of new funding under separate legislation this session.
The cap could be exceeded if taxing districts hold elections and voters approve the increase. Currently, local governments can increase property tax revenue by up to 8% a year without an election.
Dallas is one of the U.S. metro areas where rising home prices have hurt homeownership the most. Dallas, Denver and Houston were identified as the markets where there is the most downward pressure on homeownership, according to a new report by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty. The study ranked areas where the markets have tilted in favor of renting over buying homes. Researchers traced housing conditions in 23 markets for the report. Dallas was the most unfavorable for homeownership among the cities surveyed. "Of the metros in our index, Dallas is the highest and exhibiting the greatest downward pressure on the demand for homeownership," said Ken Johnson, real estate economist in FAU's College of Business. "The extraordinary appreciation in the area is a major driver of this score." Dallas' housing market has taken off since the Great Recession, with soaring prices.
SOURCE: Meyers Research
Dallas and Houston are the hottest spots in the country for millennial homebuyers. That's what analysts at California-based Meyers Research found in their annual "millennial desirability index" that rated the country's largest housing markets. Austin ranked third on the same list, which compared data on housing affordability, job growth, cost of living and other factors for major metro areas across the country. Meyers Research's director of research, Ali Wolf, said factors such as Texas' relatively low new home prices, strong economy and high quality of life push the state's major cities to the top of the list. Job opportunities, affordability and lifestyle were key factors millennials said they would consider in moving to a new city. Meyers' study is one of two recent studies that give North Texas high marks for first-time homebuyers.
The latest North Texas housing market numbers are not very encouraging, to say the least. Home sales were down in many Dallas-Fort Worth neighborhoods in February, and median home sales prices dropped for the first time since 2008-2009 in both Dallas and Rockwall counties. Dallas County home sales prices fell 2.5 percent in February from a year ago, according to the latest figures from the MetroTex Association of Realtors. Median sales prices slid 4.5 percent in Rockwall County. Collin and Denton counties eked out tiny year-over-year home price gains last month — less that 1 percent ahead of February 2018. The only solid home price gain in the region came in Tarrant County, where houses are still relatively affordable. Lower and moderate-priced house sales are still strong while purchases of expensive properties have lagged.
Homebuilders are starting off 2019 with hopes of another increase in U.S. sales, especially newly built houses. But the building industry also sees an upcoming drop nationally in purchases of preowned homes because of rising affordability issues. "2019 looks like a year of solid, if not spectacular, growth," said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. "I think new-home sales will be up a tad and existing home sales down." The building industry forecasts a 2 percent rise in nationwide home starts in 2019, making it the best year since the Great Recession. That's the most positive sign in this year's outlook. "We actually have existing home sales declining year-over-year in 2019," Dietz said at the industry's annual meeting this week in Las Vegas. The drop in existing home sales is likely to be between 2 percent and 4 percent this year, according to the latest industry outlook. Preowned home sales in Dallas-Fort Worth fell slightly in 2018 after several years of increases. The decline continued into the new year. Higher mortgage rates and record prices are blamed for the slowdown.
In Dallas County, home sales by real estate agents fell more than 12 percent in January from the same month in 2018. Sales were down almost 13 percent in Denton County and down 10.5 percent year-over-year in Collin County. The smallest sales decline was in Tarrant County — 8.5 percent — where a larger inventory of more affordable houses on the market has made purchase activity stronger. Real estate agents are scrambling to adjust to the downshift in the local home market. "We are being realistic with our sellers, telling them you need to price your house at what it will sell for," said Cathy Mitchell, 2019 president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. "I think this market correction is good for us." There was about a four-month supply of houses on the market in North Texas at the end of January.
By Brandon Cornett | January 18, 2019 | © HBI,
Recent forecasts for the real estate market in Dallas, Texas suggest that home prices in the area could rise faster than the national average in 2019. A separate forecast from Zillow ranked Dallas as one of the top ten "hottest" housing markets of 2019.
Bold Outlook for Dallas Housing Market in 2019
At the start of 2019, the median home value for Dallas, Texas was around $201,000. (The median for the broader DFW metro area was a bit higher.) That was a gain of more than 13% from a year earlier, according to data collected by Zillow.
Predictions from housing analysts point to continued home-price growth throughout 2019. In fact, the Dallas real estate market is expected to outperform the nation this year, in terms of annual home-value appreciation. Given the current rate of appreciation, it would not be surprising to see the median house price in Dallas rise somewhere between 7% and 10% over the next year.
Zillow's research team recently predicted that the median value in Dallas would climb by 11.2% over the next 12 months. That was a much bolder forecast than the one they issued for the nation as a whole, which predicted 6.4% growth.
Housing Supply on the Rise
Inventory is another important trend that could shape the Dallas-area housing market in 2019. This year, home buyers across the metro area could have more properties to choose from. At the end of 2018, the Dallas real estate market had more than a 4-month supply of homes for sale. That was a higher level of inventory than most metro areas across the U.S., and also higher than the national average during that same timeframe.
The key takeaway here is that housing inventory in Dallas (i.e., the number of homes listed for sale) increased during the latter part of 2018. As a result, buyers who enter the market this year should have more options when it comes to choosing a property.
Dallas Makes Zillow's "Hottest" List
In January, Zillow published a forecast that included what they felt would be the ten "hottest U.S. housing markets for 2019." Dallas was ranked at number seven on that list. To create their "hot list," Zillow examined a number of factors for the nation's 50 largest metro areas. They then combined these variables to create a "hotness" score. They looked for metro areas with strong income growth, growing populations, and low unemployment — among other factors.
A Cooling Trend Could Prevent Affordability Issues
The Dallas real estate market is something of a paradox right now, as we move into 2019. Home prices in the area continue to rise faster than the national average. At the same, however, there is clearly a cooling trend taking place.
Paige Shipp, regional director at MetroStudy, recently told The Dallas Morning News: "Dallas-Fort Worth, the nation's top new home market, is slowing from a frenzied, overheated pace to a more stable, normalized market. Builders and developers are hard at work delivering product to meet the strong demand for affordable new homes."
Dallas currently leads the nation in terms of new-home construction, according to MetroStudy and other sources. There were nearly 35,000 housing starts in the DFW area during the third quarter of 2018, more than any other metro. (A "housing start" is the beginning of construction for a house.)
If inventory continues to grow in this market — as expected — it will likely lead to smaller home-price gains in the future. And that's probably a good thing. When house prices rise at a much faster pace than local wages and income, it can create affordability problems. So a cooling trend could actually be beneficial at this point.
Disclaimer: This article includes housing market predictions for the Dallas-Forth Worth metro area in 2019. They were provided by third parties not associated with the Home Buying Institute. Real estate forecasts are the equivalent of an educated and are far from certain.
Local real estate agents sold 9 percent fewer homes in December than they did a year earlier — the fifth month in a row of year-over-year declines in home purchases. Last month 7,786 homes were sold through the agents' multiple listing service, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information System. Last year's slight decline in home purchases in the area followed almost eight years of increases. "It's still the second-best year ever," said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center. "The whole state is reverting to a more normal market. "We've been going really, really strong for years, and ultimately that slows down." Higher mortgage rates and record home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have caused some prospective buyers to pull back from the market.
The number of homes for sale in the almost two dozen North Texas counties included in the report was 22 percent higher than a year earlier, with more than 21,000 preowned single-family homes listed for sale with real estate agents. On average it took 57 days to sell a property -- 8 percent longer than a year earlier. Even with the increase in inventory, there was only about a 2.4-month supply of houses listed for sale in the area at the end of December.
Dallas-area home price gains slightly outperformed the national average in 2018.Dallas home prices rose 5.3 percent from 2017 levels while the U.S. price increase was 5.1 percent, CoreLogic reports. CoreLogic is forecasting that nationwide home prices will grow less than 5 percent in the year ahead."The rise in mortgage rates has dampened buyer demand and slowed home-price growth," Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in the report. "These higher rates and home prices have reduced buyer affordability," he said. "Home sellers are responding by lowering their asking price, which is reflected in the slowing growth of the CoreLogic Home Price Index." Along with Dallas' 5.3 percent year-over-year home price gain, CoreLogic found that prices were up 6.9 percent annually in the Fort Worth area and were 5.8 percent higher in San Antonio. Houston prices rose by just under 4 percent from a year ago. And prices in the Austin area were only 3.4 percent higher than in November 2017.
Homeowners that CoreLogic surveyed attributed the growing home values as part of a strong national and local economy. "A strong economy helps homeowners feel confident about the value of their property," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "If recent declines in the stock market shake consumer confidence in the national economy, we may see homeowners' perception of home values change and a subsequent buyers' market emerge in 2019." Even with the declines in the rate of home appreciation, Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are at record levels and have risen more than 40 percent in the last five years.
It's no secret that Dallas' home market has a winter chill.Home sales have slowed, along with the rate of home price increase in North Texas.The market changes have put Dallas on Realtor.com's list of the 10 cities hit hardest by a housing slowdown."In the last few months, the real estate market has actually begun slowing down. including in some of the big cities that have been leading the go-go post-recession housing boom," according to a report on the website. "To be clear, prices aren't always dropping in these places, which are predominantly located on the West Coast."Mostly, they're decelerating, coming back down to earth."
Realtor.com based its rankings on a year-over-year rise in home price markdowns, increases in listings and changes in overall list prices."There's a rebalancing that needs to happen," Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told Realtor.com. "Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it's very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. ... It's not surprising to me that we're seeing a little bit of a leveling off."
Median home prices in North Texas are still up about 5 percent compared with 2017 levels. But that's a much smaller number than the double-digit annual gains seen in recent years. Home list prices in the Dallas area are down 1.4 percent from a year ago, and the number of listings has grown 15 percent year over year, according to Realtor.com
The declines in D-FW home sales and slower price appreciation are having a bigger impact on consumers' attitudes than their pocketbooks, analysts said. "I am more concerned about the psychological impact of not-so-rosy housing news than I am about the actual underlying fundamentals of the housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth market," said Daren Blomquist, top economist with Attom Data Solutions. "Certainly the data shows that the market has gotten somewhat overheated and is due for a slowdown, but that slowdown should just be a chance for the market to catch its breath rather than a trigger a panic attack. "Jobs and people are still moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth area in large numbers, which ultimately should keep demand for housing solid," Blomquist said. "But the psychology of the market is more of a wild card and could result in a bigger slowdown or correction."
North Texas home sales would be higher if there were more moderately priced properties up for grabs, Paige Shipp of housing analyst Metrostudy Inc. said. "I believe the 1 percent decrease in sales this year is due to the lack of homes on the market below $200,000, not a lack of buyers," Shipp said. "D-FW has strong job and population growth, which equates to demand for homes. "However, the increasing interest rates have exposed the fact that D-FW buyers cannot all afford homes priced above $400,000, she said.
Not so fast with the gloomy forecasts for Dallas' housing economy. Yes, the local home market appears to be cooling after years of scorching hot sales. And some analysts have suggested there's a Dallas home price bubble getting ready to burst. But a new forecast by Zillow says the market is likely to outperform the rest of the country in 2019 when it comes to home price gains and housing market health.
Zillow surveyed more than 100 real estate economists and investment experts for their take on the U.S. housing market and future home value growth. According to Zillow's research, markets in Denver; Washington, D.C.; Atlanta; Dallas; Las Vegas; Phoenix; and San Jose, Calif., are likely to outperform the rest of America in 2019. The economists on Zillow's panel said they expected U.S. home value to grow an average of 3.8 percent in 2019.
North Texas home prices are about 5 percent higher in 2018 after several years of double-digit annual appreciation. D-FW home prices were forecast to grow 4.3 percent next year in a recent Realtor.com report. Local analysts don't expect declines in home values in 2019. Instead, they say the rate of home price gains and overall home sales are likely to moderate.
Home prices are out of reach relative to incomes and mortgage rates. The big question for the economy is how the imbalance adjusts.
These should be happy times for the housing sector. The economy is booming, with more people working at higher pay, and with the sizable millennial generation reaching prime home buying age. Instead, the housing market has gone soft, acting as a drag on the overall economy rather than as a force propelling it forward.
Sales of new single-family homes were down 22 percent in September from their recent high in November 2017, and existing home sales in September were down 10 percent. This tepid residential investment subtracted from G.D.P. growth in each of the first three quarters of 2018.
Home prices have not declined nationally, at least according to the most widely followed indexes. But their rate of increase has declined, and more and more home sellers are finding they must reduce asking prices to find a buyer. Given how central housing is to the broader economy — it is the biggest driver of both wealth and indebtedness for most families, and its fluctuations have frequently been major factors in past booms and busts — this slump isn't something to be taken lightly for anyone hoping the good times will last.
So what's going on?
When you look closely at the data, it appears this paradox of a strong economy and a weak housing market is, at its core, an illustration of a fundamental rule in economics: If something can't go on forever, it won't. Home prices in a given location are ultimately tethered to the incomes of the people who either live there or want to. But for much of the last six years, that relationship has come undone. Nationally, personal income per capita has risen 25 percent since the end of 2011, while the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index is up 48 percent (neither figure is adjusted for inflation).
The gap is even larger in the big coastal cities with high wages and booming job markets, but where legal and other barriers make it hard for builders to add to the supply of homes. In the San Francisco metro area, per capita personal income rose 40 percent from 2011 to 2017, while home prices rose 96 percent. Similar patterns are evident in Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, New York and Washington. In less high-flying markets, there was still a disconnect. In the Minneapolis area, for example, incomes rose 22 percent while home prices rose 46 percent.
Those rising home prices got help from years of very low mortgage rates, which put more expensive homes within reach for people at a given income level. Activity was also probably boosted by some bounce-back effect after the housing market crash of 2007-09, a result of pent-up demand for homes that were not bought while the market was collapsing.
Rates bottomed out in late 2012 at 3.31 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. They have been moving upward in fits and starts since, including a full percentage point in the last year alone to nearly 5 percent — still low by historical standards, but high compared with the ultralow levels that had enabled these huge price gains.
There's no doubt that demographics are favorable for housing demand. The peak birth year for millennials was 1990; it's a group that is turning 28 this year and thus entering prime years for home buying. As it happens, 28 is exactly the median response in a Bankrate survey that asked adults for the ideal age to buy a home.
But that doesn't matter if prices are out of reach relative to incomes. Moreover, lending standards have remained more rigorous than they were during the last housing boom, so it has been harder for people to stretch to buy a home. The inability of people to buy homes they can't really afford is great news in terms of avoiding another crisis, but not so great for the near-term outlook for housing.
"Buyers can only stomach so many price increases until it gets unsustainable," said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at the online brokerage Redfin. "Prices reached a breaking point where buyers were fed up and started to consider other options," she said, including renting and moving away from the expensive coastal markets where prices are most out of whack with incomes.
As Economics 101 teaches, price movements are the way that supply and demand match up with each other. But in the housing sector especially, that adjustment can take a while. In contrast with the stock market, where relatively unemotional traders are buying and selling shares every day and the market stays liquid, home purchase and sales decisions can take months and are deeply emotional for the participants.
What seems to be happening is that sellers are trying to cling to the spring 2018 prices that their neighbors received, while there aren't enough buyers in late 2018 willing or able to pay those prices. In a Fannie Mae survey of home purchase sentiment, the proportion of people who think it is a good time to buy a home has decreased significantly since the spring, to a net 21 percent from 29 percent. But so has the proportion who think it is a good time to sell, which has dropped to 35 percent from 45 percent.
You would expect, in a zero-sum transaction like a home sale, for those numbers to move in opposite directions. Instead, it seems that sellers are unhappily realizing that they aren't going to get what they thought their house was worth six months ago, and buyers still think homes are too expensive. That helps explain why transaction volume, especially for new houses, has fallen substantially while prices haven't (at least yet). It's a standoff. And the outcome of the standoff will, in the aggregate, play a role in shaping the future of the economy.
There is precedent for this, and it isn't a happy one. In the last housing boom, new home sales peaked in July 2005, and home prices didn't start declining until May 2006. It didn't start to hurt the overall economy until December 2007, when the damage had spread through an overleveraged global financial system.
But that doesn't mean this episode has to end in tears. Home prices are not nearly as out of line with incomes as they were then; speculative activity hasn't been nearly as frothy; and consumer debt levels are considerably more measured. "I think income growth will help us get out of this period," said Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. "We're probably looking at a period where existing home sales volume is flat to declining, and it now looks like 2017 was the peak year for transaction volume."
A strong (nonhousing) economy makes it more likely that this housing slump will end without a steep 2008-style downturn. So does the basic reality that young adults are forming families and need a place to house them.
But in the meantime, it could be a soft few months or even years of standoffs between buyers and sellers, with the big question of which comes first: sellers who settle for less after recognizing that the price they thought they would get is beyond the reach of buyers, or incomes that catch up with a housing market that got a little ahead of itself.
Dallas-area home prices grew less than 5 percent in August from a year earlier, according to the latest nationwide comparison. It was the first time in almost six years that Dallas-area home appreciation has been at such a low level in the closely-watched Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index. "Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate," S&P's David M. Blitzer said in the report. "The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices. Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters."
Home prices in North Texas have cooled in 2018 after years of double-digit percentage annual gains. Still, Dallas-area prices are about 45 percent higher than a decade ago, before the economic downturn and housing crash. "There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis," Blitzer said. "Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely."
The slowdown in home price growth may be good news for potential buyers who have struggled to find homes they can afford. "It's more welcome news for would-be homebuyers, who must be breathing a collective sigh of relief that home price growth finally has slowed," Skylar Olsen, Zillow's director of economic research, said in a statement. "Softening appreciation after the rapid growth of just a few months earlier is a sign that fierce competition is dying down. Potential buyers who were intimidated during the heat of the market may find the breathing space now to make a calm, considered decision about whether to lock in a mortgage before rates rise further."
The latest forecast from CoreLogic calls for only about 2.7 percent home price growth in D-FW in the next 12 months.
- Dallas Morning News, October 15, 2018
Don't look for Dallas-Fort Worth on the list of cities economists expect to have the biggest home price gains in the year ahead. Nationwide prices are expected to rise by less than 5 percent in the year ahead, according Veros, a risk management and valuation firm. "Our latest VeroForecast indicates that on average, for the top 100 most populated metro areas, we expect 4.5 percent appreciation over the next 12 months," Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling at Veros, said in the report. "We are forecasting that the overwhelming number of metros across the nation, approximately 97 percent, will appreciate, with just three percent depreciating during this period."
"The days of easy 10 percent price gains in one year are over," Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told real estate agents. For sure that is so in Dallas-Fort Worth. Median sales prices in North Texas were up 9 percent last year, and rose 10 percent in 2016 and 2015 and were 11 percent higher in 2014. Through the first nine months of 2018, median sales prices of houses sold by local real estate agents are just 5 percent greater than the same period last year.
A forecast for the next 12 months sees 2.1 percent home price growth in the D-FW area, according to CoreLogic. That's much less than their U.S. 1-year price forecast rise of 4.7 percent. After several years of double-digit percentage home appreciation in North Texas, the latest price forecasts may seem dismal. But a slowdown in home price gains is just what the D-FW area needs at this point in the cycle. The best way to prevent another housing bubble is to let a little air out of the market before things get too overvalued.
The number of "For Sale" signs is growing in North Texas' housing market. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has had one of the biggest increases in the country in the number of homes listed for sale, according to Realtor.com. D-FW ranked eighth among the 10 major U.S. markets with the greatest increase in home listings in September, up 14 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Realtor.com. Local real estate market numbers show that almost 26,000 preowned single-family homes were listed for sale in August with North Texas real estate agents. That's the highest volume in six years. Nationwide, home inventories are at a 5-year high, according to Realtor.com. "After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September's almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market," Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, said in the report. "Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize.
NOTES: Median home price is based on Q1 2018. Home price to income is calculated using median home price and median family income. SOURCES: Synergos Technologies, Realtor.com, Moody's Analytics, NOAA, Ed.gov. Illustrations by Martin Laksman. For full Best Places to Live methodology, see money.com/BPLmethodology.
Money is the latest national publication to sing the praises of Frisco, listing the North Texas suburb as No. 1 in its 2018 best places to live report. After compiling data on everything from school graduation rates to median home prices, the fast-growing community north of Dallas beat out 582 other communities -- many of them suburbs -- to claim the top spot. One of the highest grades in the report went to Frisco's education system. "With more than 70 campuses, the Frisco Independent School District has the highest graduation rate of all the cities and towns Money evaluated this year," the report said. Frisco's graduation rate is 98 percent.
It lists Frisco's population as about 179,000, its median family income as $129,118 and its median home price as $349,000. In explaining its methodology, the finance-focused publication looked only at places with populations of 50,000 or greater. "We eliminated any place that had more than double the national crime risk, less than 85 percent of its state's median household income, or a lack of ethnic diversity. This gave us 583 places," Money said."We put the greatest weight on economic health, public school performance, and local amenities. Housing, cost of living, and diversity were also critical components," it said. The methodology information listed online did not say how the study's authors defined "lack of ethnic diversity." Frisco's population is 75 percent white, according to Frisco.com.
Money also lauded Frisco for it public-private partnerships -- particularly the Ford Center at The Star. That athletic facility, built as part of a partnership with schools, the city and the Dallas Cowboys, doubles as a place for school football games and a practice field for the NFL team. The Star also serves as the Cowboys' headquarters.
Frisco, Allen and McKinney routinely show up on "best of" lists. In 2016, career expert website Zippia named Frisco as the most successful city in America.The only other Texas city in Money's top 25 was Flower Mound, which ranked 16th.
Homebuyers are getting a double whammy. "Home prices are up and mortgage rates are up," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist with CoreLogic. Nationwide home prices are almost 7 percent higher than a year ago. And the average long-term mortgage cost has risen by seven tenths of a percentage point interest compared with this time in 2017, according to CoreLogic. "That translates into a 16 percent increase in the monthly principal and interest payments to buy the same house," Nothaft said. For the first-time homebuyer there is a 19 percent increase from one year ago. "Average wages around the country are up only 2.5 percent to 3 percent from a year ago. Each passing month as prices rise and mortgage rates rise, it's increasingly challenging for home buyers, especially entry-level homebuyers," he said. "The pinch it takes out of their monthly budget starts to affect more and more buyers across the country." Dallas-Fort Worth is one of the markets with record-high home costs. While overall median home prices in North Texas are up about 5 percent so far in 2018, prices for the most affordable houses — under $200,000 — are rising at almost twice that rate. CoreLogic is forecasting further increases in home prices and interest rates in the year ahead.
Purchasing your first home has long been a part of the American dream. While some cities across the country are considered Millennial Magnets, according to a report by ABODO Apartments, Dallas ranks near the bottom of the list of major US cities for this new wave of home buyer.
Dallas, Texas has experienced a boom in its employment market because of huge economic opportunities. Consequently, the increase in the job market has also caused an increase in demand for housing making it difficult for Millennials to afford Dallas homes for sale.
But despite these challenges, some continue to push forward with buying their first home in the DFW. Our REALTORS® know the local market well and offer these eight tips when you're ready to buy a home in Dallas.
If you're getting ready to take your first steps to homeownership, there is no better time than now to start. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates to speak with an experienced realtor that knows the Dallas market and understands the needs of first-time home buyers.
There are many people in the world who love dogs, but you can't always include landlords on that list. While a landlord may love their own dog, they're typically less enthusiastic about the four-legged friends of their tenants. Combine that with the fact that dog owners love giving their pets room to roam the outdoors, and you can see one of the hidden motivations that inspire many renters to purchase a house of their own. So in a way, home-buying really is going to the dogs, and that's not a bad thing!
Our REALTORS® have the details on this growing trend, along with other key reasons buyers choose to purchase a home for the first time.
It's no surprise that house hunters consider their dog when shopping for Dallas homes for sale. In fact, a third of Americans from the Millennial generation has stated that a better space/yard for their dog was an important motivating factor in choosing to purchase a home for the first time. A great space for their four-legged friends is one of the motivators which influence young home buyers:
Looking for the perfect DFW home for you, your family, and your favorite pets? We can help! Contact us to buy and sell homes throughout the Dallas, TX area.
Families with homes in Fort Worth have their choice of Halloween thrills and chills. Your whole family can walk the neighborhood in quirky disguises. You can fill your days and nights with planned events and whimsical, scary adventures. But not too scary!
When the smallest goblins take part in family Halloween fun, it's important to steer clear of super scary events. Traditional haunting venues may frighten young children a bit too much. They may cause little people nightmares that keep the whole family up late at night.
Our real estate agents know a lot about local businesses, attractions, and family-friendly events. We draw on that knowledge to recommend a list of Halloween events that promise fun for the entire family.
When you need reliable information about Fort Worth or Dallas homes for sale, our DFW real estate professionals can help. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates when you're buying or selling your home in Texas.
An open house is a great opportunity to tour homes for sale in your community without having to schedule an appointment.
Hitting open houses on a given Sunday can also help you gauge available homes in a market and begin a relationship with a REALTOR® if you have not already found one. If you're new to "Open House Sundays," here are easy tips for making your search for Dallas homes more enjoyable and productive.
In a study released earlier this year, GoodCall, a South Carolina data analysis firm, revealed three Collin County cities--Frisco, Allen and Richardson, were among the best cities nationwide to buy forever homes. According to GoodCall, "High-ranking cities are those that generally are affordable with growing home values, growing population, low unemployment and crime rates, and an educated population. Texas is the place to go if you're looking to settle in for the long haul."
Our team at RE/MAX DFW Associates--especially our REALTORS® in Frisco--weren't too surprised with GoodCall's results. We live and work in the local area and love our community.
Let's take a look at why Frisco ranked #3 on their list.
It's not hard to understand why Frisco has earned its name as the"Texas Rising Star." Frisco, a suburb of Dallas, is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States where home values are rising.
Frisco's residents enjoy living in a community with local pride and small-town charm while being only a short drive from the excitement of living in the DFW Metroplex.
Frisco is home to a multitude of entertainment and attractions including NFL's Dallas Cowboys headquarters and training center, the FC Dallas soccer team, the Frisco RoughRiders Class AA baseball team, the Dallas Stars NHL team, and the Texas Legends.
We've got hiking trails, biking trails and parks located throughout Frisco just waiting to be explore and enjoyed. We've got an outdoor adventure waiting for you: Hiking and biking...you'll find it, taking your kids for an afternoon at the park...got that too. Frisco has received the designation as "Tree City USA" by the National Arbor Day Foundation.
Whether your tastes run from simple to sophisticated, Frisco's culinary scene offers s variety of options for any appetite. Order a burger from Kenny's Burger Joint or an Italian delight from Tavolo Italia. Indulge in Texas BBQ from 3 Stacks Smokehouse or finish the evening at Andy's Frozen Custard.
Frisco is the ultimate shopping mecca. Second only to sports in our community, shopping is one of the most popular things to do in Frisco. Visit Stonebriar Centre in North Dallas if you prefer a shopping mall experience or for the charm of boutique shopping in Frisco, visit the Blue Door Boutique or Lillian Welch.
Frisco continually racks up accolades from nationally recognized publications like CNN, Money Magazine and Men's Journal as "The Best Places to Buy a Forever Home," "One of the Best Place to Live," and even, "#1 Place to Raise an Athlete." USA Today ranked Frisco as the second safest city in Texas to live.
When you're ready to make Frisco your forever home, contact our local experts at RE/MAX DFW Associates to start your home search.
When you enter the Dallas Historic West End District, you still see evidence of its industrial past. The brick buildings that give the area a throwback feel once housed manufacturers and warehouses.
Rehabbing and redecorating gave those buildings a new life as trendy restaurants, shops, museums, and entertainment venues. It's a great area for dining, exploring, or celebrating special events.
Our Dallas REALTORS® live and work in the area. We enjoy the West End District's entertainment venues. Whether you're new to the area or you're a longtime Dallas homes resident, we want to help you discover the benefits of this exciting shopping, dining, and entertainment district.
Here's just a sample of what you'll find.
Walkability, shopping, restaurants, entertainment, low crime, and a reasonable cost of living give the West End District a high livability rating. You'll find your spacious condo or apartment home in one of the district's vintage industrial buildings.
You'll find the unique goods and services you can't find anywhere else.
Walkability is one of the West End District's key features. If walking isn't your thing, you have a few alternatives.
Take a romantic carriage ride
Glide through town on a Segway
Local museums entertain and educate. They offer activities, programs, and entertainment for the whole family.
The West End Historic District offers restaurants for a fun family occasion or a night on the town. Here are few favorites.
We believe it's important to know your community. Our real estate professionals are happy to help. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates for information about buying or selling your home or if you simply want to learn more about the activities in your community.
Visitors have called the Mandalay Canal Walk at Las Colinas a "hidden secret path." Those of us with homes in Irving know the walkway is easy to find. It follows the path of the man-made waterway as it joins Lake Carolyn. The Canal Walk is one of the unique features that help make the Las Colinas planned community a wonderful place to call home.
Our REALTORS® in Irving understand that the Canal Walk at Las Colinas is no secret. Still, we believe it's important to offer friendly reminders of just how beautiful and peaceful our community can be.
When you walk the canal
The Canal Walk gives you access to a beautiful ground level city view. You follow a patterned-brick path that syncs with the waterway's arcs and curves. You wander past gleaming office buildings, hotels, arched entryways, and architecture with a distinctive European flair.
Walking the path is a unique way to appreciate the Las Colinas fusion of futuristic growth and old world charm. Best of all, it's a great way to see the commercial district without traffic getting in the way.
More than just a walk
The path is tree-lined and peaceful, ideal for a solo morning walk, an afternoon lunch with coworkers, or a romantic evening stroll. Some restaurants, shops, hotels, and local entertainment venues border the walkway. Others are nearby or a doable walking distance.
As you walk, you'll also see towering buildings, floral accents, and secluded inlets with man-made waterfalls. The celebrated Mustangs of Colinas sculpture and museum are nearby as well.
And if you don't feel like walking
If a peaceful walk isn't enough to satisfy your need for motion, you'll find a few options along the way.
Get to know your community
We believe it's important to know your community. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates when you need information on buying or selling your Irving home or if you simply want information about the businesses, activities, and entertainment in your community.
Buying a home can be challenging in all kinds of ways. Simply finding a home that has everything you need is a big accomplishment, and we're here to help you in every way that we can.
For many, saving the money needed for buying a house is another major challenge. So to help you avoid any financing woes, our team has put together some of our favorite clever tips to save money for buying a home. With a little willpower and outside-the-box thinking, you'll be well on your way to saving for your dream home.
Easter is on its way in the Dallas area—to be fair, it's also on its way everywhere else—and chances are, you're looking for a good place to do some holiday dining. So whether you're looking for a cozy Easter brunch spot or an Easter dinner restaurant for the whole family, our REALTORS® in Dallas have a few solid recommendations.
At RE/MAX DFW Associates, we make it our mission to help you find your dream home in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Contact our Dallas office today to learn more about homes in Dallas that are close to the city's best restaurants.
Dallas is a big city in every sense of the word, and one of the great things about buying a house here is that the city has a neighborhood to suit every taste. Narrowing down your list to find the right Dallas neighborhood for you is one of the most important steps in the preparation process that leads to finding a home that you will love long-term. Whether you love the arts, the outdoors, or simply want the best education possible for your children, there's a Dallas neighborhood with your name on it.
The first step in finding the right neighborhood is doing your research, and if possible hands-on is preferable to learning from a distance. You can learn about school districts, employment opportunities, and economic indicators online, and then make in-person visits to the neighborhoods that pique your interest. Ahead, we'll provide examples of some of the types of neighborhoods you'll find around Dallas, along with more tips on finding the right match.
Need a hand narrowing down your neighborhood options in Dallas and throughout DFW? Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates to buy and sell homes in Dallas, TX, and for all the help you need to find the right Dallas neighborhood for you.
Are you a first-time homebuyer searching for the perfect spot in Dallas to call your own? Our city has seen a big influx of new residents in recent years and helping new homebuyers is one of the most rewarding aspects of our work at RE/MAX DFW Associates. The real estate market in Dallas is hot with homes of every variety and neighborhoods to suit every taste. So we've assembled our best tips for first-time homebuyers in Dallas to help you find a home you'll love with plenty left in your budget to explore all that this great city has to offer.
Looking for more help navigating the Dallas real estate market for the first time? Our experienced team at RE/MAX DFW Associates is here for you. Contact us to learn everything you need to buy your first home in Dallas.